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Apple Q4 earnings smackdown
Brainstorm Tech: Technology blogs, news and analysis from Fortune Magazine » Apple 2.0 —
... Andy Zaky has a bone to pick with Wall Street — or rather, with the professional analysts who cover Apple (AAPL) at Morgan Stanley (MS), Citigroup (C), Bank of America (BAC), and the rest.
“I could write a book on what Wall Street analysts don’t know,” he says. “A fifth grader could make better forecasts.”
An Apple enthusiast and small-scale investor, Zaky writes a financial blog called Bullish Cross and regularly posts his findings on Seeking Alpha, a popular venue for stock ...
Bullish Apple earnings call jockey goes up against the analysts
9 to 5 Mac - Apple Intelligence —
... and Bullish Cross believes he can beat the street on Apple sales/earnings predictions...and he's got some proof to back it up. He's been pretty solid against most analysts and was very accurate for the 3rd fiscal quarter. If you believe his bullish numbers for the 4th quarter, AAPL is going to do well on Tuesday. Apple might even have sold 3 million computers in a quarter for the first time in history. ...
Apple earnings: An example of Citizen Wall Streetin’
Between the Lines —
... reports its third-quarter earnings after the bell on Tuesday and, just like their suit-wearing Wall Street counterparts, some amateur online analysts are writing and publishing their own preview reports - in the form of blog entries. Over the weekend, Fortune profiled Andy Zaky, an Apple enthusiast and small-scale investor who is not afraid to call out Wall Street analysts for what he considers to be poor forecasting. Apple EPS survey He writes a blog called Bullish Cross and also contributes to Seeking Alpha , a popular blog followed by ...
What to expect: Apple Q4 2008 earnings preview
AppleInsider —
... , Bullish Cross , Special to AppleInsider Published: 08:00 AM EST Wall Street investors are holding their breath as Apple is set to report earnings after the close of regular trading this afternoon. This particular report will be one of the most crucial in the companys history as Wall Street and her analysts have completely written Apple off as a business that could thrive in a slower economic environment. In order for Apples shares to recover from its recent 50% plunge in value, Apple will have to demonstrate its resilience in this slowing economy by both reporting strong ...
Apple Q4 earnings: Analyzing the analysts
Brainstorm Tech: Technology blogs, news and analysis from Fortune Magazine » Apple 2.0 —
... Last week, Andy Zaky of Bullish Cross, representing a group of unpaid analysts who follow Apple (AAPL) in blogs, challenged the professionals who do it for banks and brokerage houses — and whom the bloggers claim are clueless (see Apple Q4 earnings smackdown).
So now that Apple has reported its 2008 Q4 earnings, how did the two teams do?
The results are summarized in the chart below, with estimates closest to the mark highlighted in green and the worst highlighted in orange:
What jumps out of the chart ...
The day Apple released its iPhone revenue bomb
Brainstorm Tech: Technology blogs, news and analysis from Fortune Magazine » Apple 2.0 —
... it difficult to gauge how fast Apple is actually growing.
That’s where Andy Zaky comes in. An amateur Apple watcher — and one of the blogger-analysts who humiliated the professionals in a Q4 earnings estimate smackdown earlier this week (see here) — Zaky stayed up all night Wednesday trying to reconstruct Apple’s actual earnings in quarters for which it didn’t provide non-GAAP data.
His results, published early Thursday on his blog Bullish Cross, and republished by AppleInsider and Seeking Alpha, show that ...
Apple’s incredible shrinking iPod
Brainstorm Tech: Technology blogs, news and analysis from Fortune Magazine » Apple 2.0 —
... Bullish Cross‘ Andy Zaky has been on a tear lately.
The blogger-analyst, whose predictions of Apple’s (AAPL) quarterly earnings bested the pros for the second time this year (see here and here), is using the new adjusted revenue numbers Steve Jobs released last week to take a fresh look at every aspect of company’s business.
Today he’s looking at the iPod — the MP3 player that was once the main driver of Apple’s growth, and which contributed more than 55% to its total sales revenue ...
iPods accounted for just 14.2% of Apples sales in Q4 2008
AppleInsider —
... , Bullish Cross , Special to AppleInsider Published: 08:00 AM EST If someone were to tell investors two years ago that iPod sales would only contribute 14.2% of Apples total revenue and that the company's sales would significantly accelerate to a pace of 75% year-over-year, those investors would likely have presumed Apple shares would be trading at a significant premium to 2006 levels. And yet here we are: Two years later, iPod sales only contributed 14.2% of Apples total fiscal Q4 2008 revenue which ...
Zaky: iPod Sales Account For Just 14% of Apple Revenue
Cult of Mac —
... Zaky, who watches Apple sales figures from his post at Bullish Cross, wrote Monday iPod sales contributed just 14.2 percent to the fourth quarter revenue of the Cupertino, Calif. company. ...
Analyst: Apple’s dependence on the iPod exaggerated
Macsimum News —
Analyst: Apple’s dependence on the iPod exaggerated Posted by Dennis Sellers Apple ico Oct 27, 2008 at 11:48am image Analyst Andy Zaky of Bullish Cross says that Apple’s days of “being driven by the iPod” are over. He says that investors, the media and the analysts have consistently overstated Apple’s dependence on the iPod for future revenue and earnings growth.“If someone were to tell investors two years ago that iPod sales would only contribute 14.2 percent of Apple’s total revenue and that Apple’s revenue would significantly accelerate to a shocking pace of 75 percent ...
Reconstructing Apples 2008 earnings to reflect iPhone sales
AppleInsider —
... , Bullish Cross , Special to AppleInsider Published: 10:00 AM EST Now that Apple has reported its earnings for the full 2008 fiscal year, its important for investors to focus on how Apple would have performed if it fully recognized the revenue and earnings from its sales of the iPhone.
The Apple earnings confusion has largely been the result of Apples relatively (un)complicated subscription method of accounting for sales of the iPhone. Most analysts seem to be either thoroughly lazy, or genuinely perplexed by this fairly simple concept; and so I thought I might make their ...
Apple's Staggering Cash Flow: Huge But Not News (AAPL)
Silicon Alley Insider —
... Apple included non-GAAP ("Generally Accepted Accounting Principles") financial tabs for the first time, which show much revenue and earnings the company would have posted if it had recognized iPhone revenue the same way it recognizes iPod and Mac sales. The obvious result: The numbers were a lot bigger than the GAAP numbers and showed how significant Apple's iPhone sales (including 2 million units of channel fill) were to its fiscal fourth quarter.
Apple shareholder Andy Zaky, who keeps an Apple financial analysis blog, did Apple the favor of calculating and posting ...
Apple (AAPL) Shares Bounce Back on Market/iPhone Confidence
MacBlogz - One Stop Apple News —
... by Apple during the Q4 Earnings Call, explains their long-term revenue plans/numbers, with both the iPhone, and general subscription based revenue over time. It is staggering. Andy Saky from Bullish Cross has been cited all over the web for taking Apple’s released numbers, and reconstructing them to reflect Apple’s true iPhone sales. Those are staggering as well. ...
Apple radically more undervalued than others tech heavyweights
AppleInsider —
... , Bullish Cross , Special to AppleInsider Published: 08:00 AM EST As the U.S. equity markets continue the long process of making a bottom in what is now consider to be one of the worst bear markets in history, tech investors should begin to shift their focus on a comparative valuation analysis of the leaders in the tech industry. Tech companies with solid balance sheets, large cash hordes and solid growth rates will fair a lot better in a market recovery than those whose valuations did not dramatically deflate over the past year. Of the nine big tech companies Ive reviewed, ...
Apple could beat 2009 revenue consensus by $900m per quarter
AppleInsider —
... , Bullish Cross , Special to AppleInsider Published: 10:00 AM EST Four months ago, the analyst consensus estimate for 2009 had Apple earning $6.36 in EPS on approximately $40 billion in revenue. Since that time, the economy has gone through a major financial crisis, which has led many analysts to revise their estimates down quite dramatically. As of today, the analysts are now looking for Apple to earn $5.35 in EPS on approximately $37.5 billion in revenue in 2009. The consensus has Apple literally contracting on the year -- down from $5.36 in EPS in 2008. These ...
Why investors are better off without Macworld
Brainstorm Tech: Technology blogs, news and analysis from Fortune Magazine » Apple 2.0 —
... Apple (AAPL) may have dropped nearly 7% on the news that Steve Jobs is blowing off Macworld, but according to Bullish Cross‘ Andy Zaky, investors should happy he did.
In an unpublished analysis of the company’s last four major press events — starting with Macworld 2008 and ending with October’s Spotlight on Notebooks — Zaky documents a pattern that’s become increasingly self-destructive.
“All of Apple’s media events,” he writes, “are met with crazy rumor ...
Apple Q1 2009 earnings smackdown
Brainstorm Tech: Technology blogs, news and analysis from Fortune Magazine » Apple 2.0 —
... Zaky, who tracks Apple in a blog called Bullish Cross, is expecting a blow-out quarter so much better than the company’s guidance that trading in Apple shares will be halted. His colleagues, whom he calls the “unaffiliated analysts” expect much of the same. ...
Apple Q1 earnings: Analyzing the analysts
Brainstorm Tech: Technology blogs, news and analysis from Fortune Magazine » Apple 2.0 —
... On Tuesday, Bullish Cross‘ Andy Zaky, representing a group of unaffiliated analysts who track Apple (AAPL) in blogs, challenged the professionals who do it for banks and brokerage houses — and whom the bloggers believe are largely clueless (see Apple Q1 2009 earnings smackdown).
So now that Apple has reported its 2009 Q1 earnings, how did the two teams do?
The results are summarized in the chart below. The red numbers are the worst two estimates; the green numbers the best two.
What’s immediately ...
Apple’s Q2: A test of fundamentals
Brainstorm Tech: Technology blogs, news and analysis from Fortune Magazine » Apple 2.0 —
... “How can the market justify giving Apple a 22 P/E,” asks Andy Zaky of Bullish Cross, “when it’s not growing at all?” ...
All eyes on Apple’s earnings
Brainstorm Tech: Technology blogs, news and analysis from Fortune Magazine » Apple 2.0 —
... “If you look at the past three years of earnings,” says Bullish Cross‘ Andy Zaky, “there has never been an instance where Q2 gross margin percentage surpassed Q3 gross margin percentage.” ...
All eyes on Apple’s earnings
Brainstorm Tech: Technology blogs, news and analysis from Fortune Magazine » Apple 2.0 —
... “If you look at the past three years of earnings,” says Bullish Cross‘ Andy Zaky, “there has never been an instance where Q2 gross margin percentage surpassed Q3 gross margin percentage.” ...
Apple’s Q3: Analyzing the analysts
Brainstorm Tech: Technology blogs, news and analysis from Fortune Magazine » Apple 2.0 —
... All three of our “unaffiliated” analysts did well. Deagol, a pseudonymous indie who has developed almost a cult following on the Apple investor boards, came closest on the big $8.34 billion revenue number. Andy Zaky, a day-trader who often berates the pros as clueless on his Bullish Cross blog, was right on the money for both the number of iPhones sold and the tricky non-GAAP EPS (pro-forma earnings per share that take into account deferred revenue and costs on sales of iPhones and Apple TVs) ...
Goodbye iPod, hello iPhone
Brainstorm Tech: Technology blogs, news and analysis from Fortune Magazine » Apple 2.0 —
... But this is a good thing, argues Bullish Cross‘ Andy Zaky, a day trader and occasional blogger whose estimates of Apple’s earnings regularly beat — by a ...
Apple earnings: How the analysts got it so wrong
Brainstorm Tech: Technology blogs, news and analysis from Fortune Magazine » Apple 2.0 —
... A tip of the hat, as Stephen Colbert might say, to Brian Marshall at Broadpoint AmTech, who scored the most greens by filing the most bullish report. And as always to our three independent analysts, who managed to stay entirely out of the red. You can read Turley Muller at Financial Alchemist, Deagol at Deagol's AAPL Model, and Andy Zaky (when he's writing) at Bullish Cross. These guys are too good not to be making a living at it.
A wag of the finger to the insufficiently bullish: BMO Capitol's Keith Bachman, Needham's Charlie Wolf ...
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